Calgary Real Estate Market Update - October 2022

Despite a slight decline in 2022 October sales comparable to October 2021, the year-to-date market activity is still stronger than pre-covid long-term trends with 26,823 sales total in 2022. If the trend continues, it is likely that 2022 will be a record year for sales.
While much of the market across Canada has slowed, the strong economy of Calgary itself has contributed to a consistent and thriving housing market.
“Calgary hasn’t seen the same degree of pullback in housing sales like other parts of
Canada, thanks to persistently strong demand for our higher density product,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While our city is not immune to the impact that inflation and higher rates are having, strong employment growth, positive migration flows and a stronger commodity market are helping offset some of that impact.”
October saw 1,857 sales in 2022. Although this is a decrease from 2021, it still proves a much stronger market than pre-covid times. Additionally, most of the decline was in the detached sector where low inventory on homes listed for less than $500,000 drove a 29 per cent decrease in that specific market. In fact, overall inventory numbers were low this month due to the strict decline in the lower priced homes. This directly correlates to the sales-to-new-listings ratio rising by 85 per cent stemming from a downward trend on new listings.

The market has calmed considerably in comparison to the first two quarters of 2022, but still remains stronger at the beginning of this fourth quarter than historical levels in October. Moreover, divergent trends between higher-priced and lower-priced homes are emerging. Conditions are holding tight in the lower-price ranges, continuing a strong seller’s market. In the high price ranges, however, the market is becoming more balanced between sellers and buyers. When compared to the highs in May, home prices have eased by four percent for the month of October. Nevertheless, the October benchmark prices are still ten per cent higher than those reported in October
of last year. Additionally, the four per cent drop from May to October is relatively small in comparison to the market activity in other similar cities.

Detached Homes

While there was considerable sales growth for homes priced above the $700,000 mark, the overall trend in detached sales this month showed a sharp decline. This is driven by the limited inventory, which creates an exceptionally tight market in lower-priced homes. Compared to last year, the detached home sales saw a decline of almost one third. Parallel to the 29 per cent decline in sales, the inventory levels for detached homes this October were 35 per cent lower than what is typical for this time of year. There were less than 2,000 units in inventory, with over 42 per cent of those homes falling in the higher-price range. Pricing trends are likely to become varied depending on the price range of the home.
Relative to last month and peak prices in May, prices are down in October. But they are still 12 per cent higher than October last year. Notably, the North and Southeast districts saw the greatest gains in comparison to 2021.

Semi Detached

October sales were lower in this sector for 2022 in comparison to October 2021. Overall year-to-date sales, however, are up by three per cent due to the strong market earlier in the year. The sales-to-new- listings ratio topped out at over 80 per cent due to a slowing trend in new listings relative to sales. The inventory is tight, leaving just over two months of supply. The benchmark price for semi-detached homes was nine per cent higher than October last year, despite a slight decline from the previous month. Year-over-year price gains are varied by location with lows close to eight per cent in the City Center and highs around 16 per cent in the North district.

Row Homes

Sales in this sector have risen nearly 42 per cent when compared to last year. New listings have slowed, however, keeping the sales-to-new-listings ratio exceptionally tight at 106 per cent. The decline in inventory and rise in sales has created a strong seller’s market for row homes. The benchmark price was $361,200 in October, barely moving from the peak of the market back in June. In fact, it is less than a one per cent decline, proving a strong and stable market. Compared to last year, prices are up 15 per cent with the highest gains in the Southeast, Northeast and North districts.

Apartments and Condominiums

With an impressive year-to-date increase of more than 56 per cent, apartment sales continued to rise in October. And although there were also gains in new listings, inventory levels trended down due to the exceptional rate of sales. The months of supply was at the lowest level it has been during October since 2013 with just under three months. As of October, the benchmark price on apartments was $277,800. This proves a stable market with prices similar to the previous month, but 11 per cent higher than October of last year. Many of the strongest price increases are in locations outside of the City Centre.

Regional Market Facts

Airdrie
Despite slowed sales over the past few months, this area is still on trend to see over 11 per cent in gains in comparison to last year. There have been 2,269 units sold in Airdrie this year, making this area poised to hit a new record in sales. The sharp rise in sales was prompted by an increase in new listings. The inventory levels, however, remained low in comparison to past October market reports. The months of supply continues to be just as tight as in earlier months this year with only one and a half months.
Although the market has stayed very consistent throughout the year, prices have seen a six per cent decrease since the record high of $510,700 back in April. However, they are 14 per cent higher overall than those reported last year.

Cochrane
This area saw a downward trend in inventory when compared to last month causing a high sales-to-new- listings ratio of 90 per cent. The sales activity remains high in comparison to new listings, keeping inventory lower than what is typical for this market, even though it is higher than last year. Prices are about 16 per cent higher than those of last year with a benchmark price of $507,000. The detached and semi-detached sectors have seen the majority of the price gains with an 18 per cent
increase in those sectors alone.

Okotoks
October saw a slowing trend in new listings in this market, causing a sales-to-new-listings ratio above 100 per cent. Inventories are considerably lower than what is typically seen in October, and conditions are unlikely to become more balanced.
While prices have decreased from their peak in May due to the incredibly tight market, they remain strong overall with an October benchmark price of $537,800. This shows a year-to-date gain of 11 per cent.