Calgary Real Estate Market Update - October 2021

Seller’s Market Continues in October

There were 2,186 housing sales last month in Calgary, which was a record high for October and more than 35% higher than long-term averages. Furthermore, sales year-to-date are set to reach new highs, being 61% higher now than average sales over the last five years as well as 42% higher than averages over the last 10 years.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® Chief Economist said, “Moving into the fourth quarter, the pace of housing demand continues to exceed expectations in the city.”

“Much of the persistent strength is likely related to improving confidence in future economic prospects, as well as a sense of urgency among consumers to take advantage of the low-lending-rate environment.”

Compared to 2020, the number of new listings has increased, but improved sales further softened inventory levels, which are still 16% below 2020 and long-term averages for October. The level of supply is still struggling to keep up with demand with a lot of the decline in months of supply due to increased sales. The months of supply went down to a little over two months in October.

Continuing tight market conditions led to some gains in benchmark prices in October, reaching $460,100. This is a bit higher than in September and nearly 9% higher than in October 2020, which recorded a benchmark price of $422,600.

UPDATES IN THE HOUSING MARKET

Detached Homes

Due to gains across most districts, sales of detached homes increased by 17% in October, compared to 2020. The strongest growth was in the East and North East districts, which happen to be the most affordable in Calgary.

There was also an increase in new listings over 2020 levels, but the ratio of sales-to-new-listings rose to 99% due to 1,350 new listings and 1,333 sales. At the same time, inventories dropped to 2,063 units with the months of supply dropping to under two months.

As the detached market continued to tighten the upward pressure on prices increased in October, reaching $540,900. This was up almost 1% from September and more than 10% higher than in October 2020. The South East and North districts are experiencing the strongest price growth year-to-date with prices rising by more than 11%.

Semi-Detached Homes

Sales of semi-detached homes continued rising in October, adding to the record high year-to-date. However, there was a softening of new listings with the ratio of sales-to-new-listings rising to 98% as inventories dropped. There has been a trending down of the months of supply over the past few months, placing pressure for prices to go up in the sector.

The benchmark price for semi-detached homes rose to $427,800 in October, which is almost 9% more than 2020 levels. Sales have increased in all districts, but the North and South East districts are experiencing the tightest conditions. These two districts are seeing the highest gains in prices year-to-date, exceeding 10%.

Row Houses

Sales of row houses continued to be strong in October, along with increases in most districts. This added to the record high year-to-date, but unlike in other sectors, row houses did not experience a major increase in new listings relative to 2020 levels. This helped to avoid a huge drop in inventory and pushed the months of supply to over three months.

The market in row houses was not as tight in October as in September, but it’s still far tighter than is typically seen at this time of year and varies a lot by district. In October the months of supply were still below three months in the East, South East, South and North districts.

Prices of row houses have still not rebounded from previous highs, but they were trending up in October. The biggest gains for row houses have been in the North East and East districts, which is where benchmark prices are averaging less than $200,000 so far this year.

Condominiums & Apartments

Largely due to improvements across Calgary, sales of condominiums and apartments were strong in October compared to sales in 2020 and long-term averages. Almost half of condo sales were in the City Centre, the only district to experience a significant upward trend in monthly sales compared to the previous month.

Some of these gains may be due to adjusting prices in City Centre as benchmark prices for October were more than 3% below 2020 levels and were trending down from September. These price declines in City Centre wiped out the gains in other parts of Calgary, leading citywide figures to remain basically the same as October 2020 levels.

Despite shifting year-to-date figures, prices of condominiums have increased by more than 2% compared to 2020. Gains range from under 1% in the City Centre to more than 6% in the West district. Gains in prices for apartments are a lot lower than for other types of housing, as the supply challenges seen in other sectors doesn’t seem to be affecting apartments.

REGIONAL MARKET UPDATES

Airdrie

Sales in Airdrie continued to break records in October. This added to the 2,039 year-to-date sales figures, which were almost 81% higher than sales averages over the last five years. Low interest rates and lifestyle choices, along with Airdrie’s more affordable detached homes have led to stronger sales.

While new-home construction is starting to ramp up, it has not affected the supply shortages in the resale market. Sales outpaced the number of new listings in October, leading to additional declines in inventory and months of supply going down to just one month.

October’s benchmark prices were more than 1% higher than September and more than 14% higher than 2020 levels. There have been very strong gains in the detached segment in which prices are almost 16% higher than this time last year.

Cochrane

Home sales in Cochrane reached a new record high with homebuyers apparently preferring a higher-density area. Sales year-to-date are now at 1,081, which is almost 95% higher than average sales in the last five years.

New listings also turned around in October after being soft for the past few months. This seemed to improve the balance between supply and demand. However, the housing market in Cochrane is still struggling with a sellers’ market.

Although conditions are still tight, there was no added pressure to raise prices in October relative to the last few months. Residential benchmark prices as of October have improved year-to-date by almost 7% across the resale market.

 Okotoks

Sales in Okotoks during the month of October outpaced new listings for only the second time in 2021, causing a drop in inventory to just 74 units. This is lowest months of supply for October ever recorded and almost 60% below traditional levels.

Conditions continue to be extremely tight, but prices still moved slightly down compared to prior months. Even so, you need to know that year-to-date, total prices for residential homes have increased by more than 9%.